Looking Past the Narrative

A recent Guardian article (Khalil, 16 September 2025) noted that the youth population in regional NSW has fallen by 12% over the past two years, with even sharper declines in some hotspots. This is in contrast to the narrative of growing youth crime in NSW.

BOSCAR reported that in these past two years, there had been an increase of young people in custody by 34%. This was a result of the state government announcing tougher bail laws for youth in 2024. These laws were extended again this year. This tough-on-crime approach prioritises politics over kids. This increase in incarceration was felt most by regional Aboriginal communities.

In this report, ALS solicitor James Clifford stated:

“What we can say, though, is that we’re definitely not in the grip of a youth crime wave…. If we want to see positive impacts, it doesn’t require sweeping bail law changes; it just requires attention to specific children and families.”

This statement encourages us to reframe the discussion to young people and families. There are numerous examples of positive examples in communities where place-based, culturally and community-driven responses are supported. These show us a way forward.

We see this pattern analysing trends through politics and media not only in justice but also in health, housing and education. Political attention spikes around vaping or literacy scores, or when public housing estates are linked to crime. Yet the consistent reality is that there are communities facing overcrowding, chronic disease, and under-resourced schools year after year.

The evidence is clear; the story lies in the consistencies. When there is an increase or decrease in incarceration, or any other statistic relevant to Close The Gap targets, it is the same marginalised communities who are consistently overrepresented.

It is in recognising and addressing the consistencies where I see real opportunity. It’s wiser to mind the undercurrent of the river than the ripples on the surface.

Headlines shift, political focus pivots, but the communities who come in and out of focus continue to hold the same priorities. Impactfully addressing entrenched issues requires resisting trends, aligning priorities with communities and creating the foundations for community-driven opportunities to be undertaken and supported long-term.

The fixation on trends often leads to short-term thinking and wasted resources and missed opportunities. At worst, it damages lives, as seen by these youth bail laws that were introduced in 2024. The undercurrent rarely changes, even when the ripples on the surface do.

I vividly remember a couple of years back, being a part of a discussion about trends in youth crime. The discussion centred on types of offending from certain communities, primarily small regional towns. The discussion on trends was evidence-based and valid; however, what escaped the thinking of most people present was that these communities had been overrepresented far longer than these trends.

These communities were places where mob had been taken and forced onto missions, where there had been massacres, mass forced removals, over-policing, and the list goes on. Although trends existed, there was a failure to look at the bigger picture holistically. There was a failure to join the dots, to understand or recognise what the connections were.

Of course, observing and responding to trends has its place. But in my experience, high-level debates in media, politics and government rarely align with the priorities communities identify, which are far more consistent. Crisis can be attractive.

True change means resisting the temptation of ripples and investing in the steady undercurrent communities have been pointing to all along.

Thank you to those who have read this far. For those who would be interested in discussions related to this yarn, I’ve added links to a few relevant podcasts we’ve done below:

EP 32 Kuyan Mitchell 'Justice, Culture and Sharing Power'

EP 27 Understanding Youth Crime, Placed Based CoDesign and the age of criminal responsibility in NSW

Ep 17: Vanessa Turnbull-Roberts - 'The State Cannot Be a Parent'

Authored by Kuyan Mitchell for Impact Policy